The Arms Race Reloaded: Unintended Costs of Missile Defense

The Arms Race Reloaded: Unintended Costs of Missile Defense

Silvia Aydinyan, 4th-Year, Political Science, Economics

2024 URS

Paul Poast, Political Science

The introduction of nuclear capabilities into national arsenals during the Cold War fundamentally reshaped how states define threats and secure peace. This transformation created a global order defined by Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD), predicated on the idea of nuclear parity—where no state possesses a decisive nuclear advantage and all states are prevented from launching attacks to prevent retaliation. For decades, MAD fostered tense but stable peace. The advent of ballistic missile defense (BMD) has disrupted this fragile equilibrium by allowing states to neutralize an adversary’s nuclear capability, resulting in potential first strikes. Presently, BMD is deployed in most key strategic regions globally, forcing states to alter defense strategies and exacerbating inter-state tensions. My research focuses on the military effect: under what conditions does the deployment of BMD increase inter-state threat perception, leading to escalation in the form of arms racing? I utilize a mixed-methods approach comprised of text-based process tracing and quantitative analysis of military expenditures to isolate the escalatory impact of BMD post-deployment. My analysis leverages statements by state officials, news sources, academic publications, and government releases to identify the effect of BMD on threat perception and arsenal expansion. I find that the introduction of BMD in an adversary’s sphere of influence significantly heightens perceived threats by signaling that states have lost nuclear parity and are vulnerable to attack. This perception of increased vulnerability prompts states to escalate military spending to restore a semblance of nuclear parity. Consequently, these findings blur the theoretical distinction between offensive and defensive weapons as states perceive BMDs as key components of offensive strategy. For policymakers, this study serves as a warning against the aggressive pursuit of missile defense beyond what is necessary to deter rogue states and underscores the importance of cautious defense posturing to preserve the stability of a MAD world.

Digital Abstract